Thursday, September 30, 2010

Is The Recession Really Over?

I was enjoying my birthday in Boston at a real estate conference when the news broke… the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) declared the recession is over! Do you feel it? Does that change everything for you? Most people would agree and even our President had to acknowledge the public frustration with that finding as most Americans don’t feel the recession has ended for them.

Of course, one of the strongest indicators of the health of the economy is the housing market. The NBER said the recession ended in July 2010. Perhaps the positive indicators in the economy found by the NBER were a result from the increased home sales through May as a result of the tax breaks to buyers. Here is how Kansas City is stacking up since those tax breaks ended.

August followed suit with June and July in dismal home sales. Sales were down -27% in the metro area compared to August of 2009. Although average sales prices are a bit more firm than last year at just 2% stronger compared to August YTD figures, sellers are still feeling the pain of time on market and discounted prices. The average home was on the market 99 days before it sold and settled on nearly a 5% discount of their list price. These figures are almost exactly the same compared to August 2009.

It appears that the yo-yo effects to the general economy are resulting from shots of stimulus but sensibilities particularly in the midwest, are holding firm to what is the natural scale of economy based on supply and demand. The strongest segment of the market is with first time homebuyers. The 80 million strong demographic of Gen Y is moving into the marketplace outnumbering their boomer parents of 76 million strong. The $100K- $180K range was strongest with 558 sales (of the 1,920 total sales for August) and will continue to be for years to come.

The current incentives in the market are with foreclosures – particularly those homes that have gone back to the government through Fannie Mae. The government is giving favored status to owner occupied buyers over investors and offering no money down to get into the properties. You can check out the Kansas City inventory at www.homepath.com .

Of course, buyer representation is especially important when buying a foreclosure. Our buyer’s agents (make that a link to our buyers agent page) are especially skilled at protecting the interest of our buyer’s; offering their vast experience in the market, educating you every step of the way, and treating your money as if it were their own. Call us today if you’d like to start that education process. We’re standing by ready to serve you or anyone you know that is thinking about buying.